Policy substitutability in complex humanitarian emergencies - A model of individual choice and international response

Complex humanitarian emergencies involve population movements on a massive scale, driven by drought, famine, or war. The international community may r espond with humanitarian aid or peacekeeping operations but local responses to international intervention may exacerbate the emergency. Combatants div ert aid to finance coercive activities, and peacekeeping operations are res isted by those who benefit from social disruption. This article develops a rational choice model that shows how individuals' choices among their optio ns of production, coercion, and relocation affect the aggregate supply and demand of food in ongoing conflicts. This model demonstrates that humanitar ian aid and peacekeeping operations have complementary strengths and that t he international community can best achieve its goals by carrying out both kinds of operations. This simple model captures important aspects of the po licy substitutability and alternative trigger effects in complex humanitari an emergencies,and suggestions for future research are outlined.