Finite-sample properties of tests for equal forecast accuracy

This study examines the small-sample properties of some commonly used tests of equal forecast accuracy. The paper considers the size and power of diff erent tests and the performance of different heteroscedasticity and autocor relation-consistent (HAC) variance estimators. Monte Carlo experiments show that the tests all suffer some size distortions in small samples, with the distortions varying across tests. The experiments also show that, adjusted for size distortions, the tests have broadly similar power, although some small differences exist. Finally, the experiments indicate that the size an d power performances of HAC estimators vary with the features of the data. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.