Assessing leader credibility during a peace process: Rabin's private polls

This article examines the role of public opinion surveys in the making of t urning-point decisions (TPDs) that lead to peace between enemies. We presen t hitherto unpublished data from private polls prepared for Yitzhak Rabin i n order to gauge public opinion regarding the Oslo peace process. In analyz ing these data we suggest a theoretical model that outlines the role of pub lic opinion in policymaking. The model considers Holsti's (1996) four major parameters within the pre-Oslo framework: the issue facing the decisionmak er; the decisionmaker's beliefs in and sensitivity to public opinion; the p olitical and social context of the decision; and the stage of policymaking. We find support for propositions regarding a paradoxical process character izing Rabin's policy. Rabin used public opinion polls to gauge the public's support for him as a leader and for taking hawkish decisions, termed credi bility-building decisions (CBD). These decisions, though seemingly detrimen tal to the peace process, were perceived as necessary in order to maintain Rabin's image as a tough-minded leader who would bring peace with the Pales tinians without sacrificing security. We suggest that public opinion survey s may be important in monitoring the effects of CBDs on the credibility of a leader whose goal is to move a peace process forward in a time of uncerta inty and threat.