Software management and cost estimating error

Software cost estimating is an important concern for software managers and other software professionals. The hypothesized model in this research sugge sts that an organization's use of an estimate influences its estimating pra ctices which influence both the basis of the estimating process and the acc uracy of the estimate. The model also suggests that the estimating basis di rectly influences the accuracy of the estimate, A study of business informa tion systems managers and professionals at 112 different organizations refi ned the model. The refined model shows that no managerial practice in this study discourag es the use of intuition, guessing, and personal memory in cost estimating. Although user commitment and accountability appear to foster algorithm-base d estimating, such an algorithmic basis does not portend greater accuracy. Only one managerial practice - the use of the estimate in performance evalu ations of software managers and professionals - presages greater accuracy. By implication, the research suggests somewhat ironically that the most eff ective approach to improve estimating accuracy may be to make estimators, d evelopers, and managers more accountable for the estimate even though it ma y be impossible to direct them explicitly on how to produce a more accurate one. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.