Temporal patterns of domestic and wildlife rabies in central Namibia stock-ranching area, 1986-1996

Eleven years (1986-1996) of wildlife- and domestic-rabies data from the agr iculture stock-ranching area of central Namibia were studied using time-ser ies analysis. Nine hundred and sixty three rabies cases were observed in do mestic ruminants (5.4 cases/mo), black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas, 1.3 cases/mo), domestic dogs (0.5 case/mo), and bat-eared foxes (Otocyon megal otis, 0.1 case/mo). The incidence of rabies for all species did not change significantly over the whole study period. However, seasonal variations wit h an increase in the number of cases between June and November of each year , as well as 3-4 yr cyclical fluctuations were identified in domestic rumin ants and black-backed jackals. The black-backed jackal time-series variable was a significant predictor of the domestic-ruminant and dog time-series v ariables, The rainfall seasonality combined with the seasonal reproductive pattern of the black-backed jackal appeared to be plausible explanations fo r the seasonal variations of rabies. However, then was no overall significa nt correlation between the cyclical weather fluctuations and the 3-4 yr cyc lical rabies variations, (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved .