In spite of the well-known effect of tobacco on embryo growth retardation,
of the higher perinatal mortality of the offspring of smoking mothers, and
of the dependence of perinatal mortality risk on small birth weight, it has
consistently been found that small infants of smoking mothers have lower m
ortality rates than small infants of non-smoking mothers. This problem was
studied on the perinatal database of a hospital, using adverse outcomes (de
ath or Apgar score < 7 at the 10th minute of life) as endpoints rather than
perinatal or foetal mortality. A stochastic model constructed to account f
or cause-effect relations demonstrated that tobacco influences weight and m
ortality by independent pathways. Furthermore, this model shed some light o
n the non-tobacco determinants of small birth weight and neonatal morbidity
. The method undertaken, based on the use of latent variables, had the adva
ntage of analysing the prevalence, consequences and interactions of some ri
sk factors without identifying them. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons,
Ltd.