The characteristics of epidemics and invasions with thresholds

In this paper we report the development of a highly efficient numerical met hod for determining the principal characteristics (velocity, leading edge w idth, and peak height) of spatial invasions or epidemics described by deter ministic one-dimensional reaction-diffusion models whose dynamics include a threshold or Allee effect. We prove that this methodology produces the cor rect results for single-component models which are generalizations of the F isher model, and then demonstrate by numerical experimentation that analogo us methods work for a wide class of epidemic and invasion models including the S-I and S-E-I epidemic models and the Rosenzweig-McArthur predator-prey model. As examplary application of this approach we consider the atto-fox effect in the classic reaction-diffusion model of rabies in the European fo x population and show that the appropriate threshold for this model is with in an order of magnitude of the peak disease incidence and thus has potenti ally significant effects on epidemic properties. We then make a careful re- parameterisation of the model and show that the velocities calculated with realistic thresholds differ surprisingly little from those calculated from threshold-free models. We conclude that an appropriately thresholded reacti on-diffusion model provides a robust representation of the initial epidemic wave and thus provides a sound basis on which to begin a properly mechanis tic modelling enterprise aimed at understanding the long-term persistence o f the disease. (C) 1999 Academic Press.