The impact of proportional representation on turnout: Evidence from New Zealand

Theories of voter turnout assume that institutional arrangements can alter incentives for participation. Countries with proportional representation (P R) are assumed to increase the incentives to participate because they reduc e the proportion of votes that are wasted, giving voters a stronger incenti ve to participate and parties a stronger incentive to mobilise voters. This paper departs from previous cross-national studies by employing individual -level data during a transition between electoral systems in one country. W e used survey data collected before and after electoral reform in New Zeala nd to examine patterns of participation among political minorities. As a di rect test of individual change, the analysis was supplemented with survey d ata from the last election held under first past the post (FPP) merged with validated participation data from the following election held under PR. We found that the adoption of PR in New Zealand has succeeded initially in fo stering more positive attitudes about the efficacy of voting. In New Zealan d's first election held under PR, voters who were on the extreme left were significantly more likely to participate than previously, leading to an ove rall increase in turnout.