Forecasting and scenario planning in the steel packaging industry: case oftinplate petfood cans

Modelling national and global steel markets using macroeconomic variables p rovides a workable basis for forecasting aggregate steer consumption. At th e market sector level, paucity of data and distortion hinder equivalent hea dway. Neural networks are applied to this problem with results that enhance those of conventional econometric models, but are nevertheless variable. A forecasting and scenario planning methodology is developed to manage the v ariability in the results of market models, and to manage the uncertainty r emaining in the market due to major trends and events that are the realm of judgmental forecasting not statistical models, The result is a scenario pl anning toot that allows the business decision maker to effectively exploit the information available on the petfood sector of the metal packaging mark et. I&S/1450.