Economic analysis of sustainable agricultural cropping systems for mid-Atlantic states

This paper evaluates the profitability and economic risks associated with f our cropping systems for the Sustainable Agriculture Demonstration site at Beltsville, Maryland, for the 1994-97 period. Each system follows a 2-year rotation of corn in the first year and winter wheat and soybean in the seco nd year. The four systems are (1) a no-tillage system with recommended fert ilizer and herbicide inputs, (2) a no-tillage system with crownvetch living mulch, (3) a no-tillage system with winter annual cover crop, and (4) a re duced tillage manure-based system without chemical inputs. cover crop syste m is the most profitable ($238 in gross margin), closely followed by the no -tillage ($233) and the manure-based system ($217). Even though farmers des ire a cropping system that maximizes profits, the variability of profits, o r risks, can influence the desirability of the cropping system. In terms of risks, no-tillage is the most preferred rotation with the smallest coeffic ient of variation (1.14) followed by the cover crop system (1.24), the manu re-based system (1.58), and the crownvetch system The same ranking can be o btained using a "safety-first" criterion risk-averse farmers, in which the gross margin of the no-tillage system would exceed $53 ha(-1) in three out of four years, while the gross margin of the cover crop system would exceed $39 ha(-1) in three out of four years. The manure-based system is an organ ic system and it was not profitable in 1996 and 1997 because of weed infest ations. However, the manure-based system shows potential to be the most pro fitable if some methods can be found to control weeds without resorting to herbicides and its crops can be certified as organic and sold at premium pr ices.