The transition from authoritarian rule - A game theoretic approach

I investigate conditions under which a regime and opposition can negotiate the democratic transformation of an authoritarian government using an exten sive form game of perfect information. An early final decision by the regim e to hold elections, which can be accomplished by delegating this decision to reformist soft-liners, facilitates transition. The relationship between regime strength and the potential for a negotiated democratization is quite complicated. The weakening of a regime as it relaxes repression, for insta nce, can block a negotiated transition: a regime can be strong enough to ho ld on to power but too weak to negotiate. The possibility of a coup by regi me supporters following an electoral defeat can, but does not necessarily, foreclose a peaceful transition.