Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird

Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates an d modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in th e population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cin clus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both infl uenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these res ults in a stochastic model shows that an expected change In climate will st rongly affect the dynamics of the population, Leading to a nonlinear increa se in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size.