Alternative scenarios of social development: Is analytical sustainability policy analysis possible? How?

In the article some alternative scenarios of social development are present ed and discussed in detail. The following scenarios are discussed: (i) the Deep Ecology Scenario, (ii) the Strong Sustainable Development Scenario, (i ii) the Weak Sustainable Development Scenario, (iv) the Boomsday Scenario, (v) the Doomsday Scenario and (vi) the World Bank 'Policy Tunnel' Scenario. In the article it is noted that the environmental EKC hypothesis can be co nnected theoretically to the Boomsday Scenario and loosely to the World Ban k 'Policy Tunnel' Scenario. On the basis of scenario analysis, it is pointed out that sustainable devel opment is not a conflict-free concept because the criteria of sustainabilit y (environmental sustainability, economic efficiency and social equality) c annot be simultaneously met in most of the scenarios analysed. Global strat egies that are based on the general, simple concepts of sustainability can be even harmful for developing societies. A useful approach for the sustain able development policy formation is sustainability thinking that is based on the analytical positioning of the current situation. The strategic guide lines of the new positioning framework are presented in the article. On the basis of theory-based scenario analysis it is noted that the situati on-based framework may help international development agencies, as well as well national and local governments, in the formation of analytical environ mental policy strategies, Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.