The existing state, future change trends in land-use and food production capacities in China

This paper forecasts major trends behind the conversion of arable land to n onagricultural uses by the year 2030, as well as food production capacities in China. It was found that agricultural structure adjustment, urbanizatio n and industrialization will play an equally important role in reducing the gross quantity of arable land. In order to conserve high-quality farmland it is necessary to increase the intensity of nonagricultural land uses thro ugh both economic incentives and administrative measures. The findings show that strengthening protection measures for arable land, including land reo rganization, land reclamation and land restoration, will significantly cont ribute to maintaining the acreage of arable land and enhancing food product ion capacities.