MEDIC - a method for predicting residual service life and refurbishment investment budgets

In the European project, EPIQR deterioration of building materials and comp onents is described by the use of a classification system with four classes for the qualitative condition of, e.g., a facade or window. The prediction of the probable period of passing into the next (worse) deterioration stat e is of high interest as this is directly connected to higher refurbishment costs. MEDIC, which stands for "Methode d'Evaluation de scenarios de Degra dation probables d'Investissements Correspondants" is a proposal for a new method to predict the future degradation state of the building. It calculat es for each element regarded in EPIQR the probability to pass from one clas s to another during time. The prediction is based on the combination of the a priori probability based on experience from a large number of previous i nvestigations/refurbishments and the current state of the object under stud y. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.