Human chorionic gonadotropin as a predictor of outcome in assisted reproductive technology pregnancies

Objective: To determine whether serum hCG and progesterone levels obtained 16 days after ovulation are reliable predictors of pregnancy outcome. Design: A retrospective study. Setting: The data were obtained from two integrated Adelaide-based clinics: the Queen Elizabeth Hospital and Wakefield Clinic. Patient(s): Women who have achieved a pregnancy through ART treatment. Main Outcome Measure(s): Analysis of data using logistic regression (STATA v.5.0) to predict a binary outcome: ongoing pregnancy or miscarriage. Ongoi ng pregnancy was defined as progression to >20 weeks' gestation. Miscarriag e included spontaneous abortion, biochemical and ectopic pregnancies, and b lighted ovum. Result(s): Human chorionic gonadotropin was found to be the main determinan t of ongoing pregnancy. Age and progesterone had minor effects, whereas sti mulation, luteal support, and treatment types were nonpredictive. Low hCG l evels between 25 and 50 IU/L are associated with a low probability of ongoi ng pregnancy (<35%), whereas levels of >500 IU/L predict a >95% chance of o ngoing pregnancy. Conclusion(s): A single serum hCC level 16 days sifter ovulation provides a useful predictor of pregnancy outcome. (Fertil Steril(R) 2000,73:270-4. (C ) 2000 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)