A general equilibrium model is linked to a decision model to determine the
impact of perfect growing season forecasts for corn produced in the Corn Be
lt region over a IO-yr period. Five different timing scenarios are examined
to determine the effect of different orderings in the occurrence of good a
nd bad crop years over this period. The use of the climate forecasts is sho
wn to have both positive and negative financial and economic effects depend
ing on the specific year within any given scenario. The expected present va
lue of changes in net surplus (consumer plus producer surplus) varied from
$1.270 to $2.917 billion from the use of the perfect forecasts over differe
nt 10-yr planning horizons. Consumers are the clear winners (positive value
s) and producers are the losers (negative values) over the entire horizon.