The potential for long-range predictability of temperature and precipitation over Japan

Daily temperature and precipitation data from Japanese stations are studied to estimate climate noise, an unpredictable part of long-term variability. The climate noise is compared to the interannual variance of monthly mean temperatures, and monthly precipitation totals, to access the potential pre dictability. Potential predictability is that part of the interannual varia nce that exceeds climate noise. Primarily during July and January, it is fo und that potential predictability of temperature can exceed 40 % at some st ations. Less potential predictability is present during April and October. The results are similar for monthly precipitation totals.