Ra. Madden et Dj. Shea, The potential for long-range predictability of temperature and precipitation over Japan, J METEO JPN, 77(6), 1999, pp. 1111-1121
Daily temperature and precipitation data from Japanese stations are studied
to estimate climate noise, an unpredictable part of long-term variability.
The climate noise is compared to the interannual variance of monthly mean
temperatures, and monthly precipitation totals, to access the potential pre
dictability. Potential predictability is that part of the interannual varia
nce that exceeds climate noise. Primarily during July and January, it is fo
und that potential predictability of temperature can exceed 40 % at some st
ations. Less potential predictability is present during April and October.
The results are similar for monthly precipitation totals.