Predicting adolescent smoking: A prospective study of personality variables

Objective. We investigated how personality variables measured at 5th grade predict daily smoking in 12th grade. Methods. A group of 3130 fifth graders was assessed for a propensity toward Rebelliousness, Risk Taking, Problem Helplessness, Affect Regulation, and Early Maturation and susceptibility to Peer Compliance and Peer Approval. D aily smoking status was determined for 94.7% of them 7 years later in 12th grade. Results. Rebelliousness and Risk Taking were the most significant predictor s of smoking. There was no statistical evidence that the extent of predicti on depended on gender or history of early smoking. No predictive evidence w as seen for the other personality measures, including those describing susc eptibility to peer influences. Conclusions. These results show that propensity toward rebelliousness and r isk taking in childhood predicts adolescent smoking. They suggest that smok ing prevention programs would do well to address the needs and expectations of rebellious and risk-taking youth, (C) 2000 American Health Foundation a nd Academic Press.