Win, place, show - Public opinion polls and campaign contributions in a New York City election

The authors examine how the relative standing of candidates in public opini on polls during a primary campaign affects their ability to raise money. A theory is proposed that considers when individuals are most likely to contr ibute to the electoral campaigns of their most preferred candidate based on a rational model of political participation and concerns about a candidate 's likelihood of winning. The theory is then applied to the case of the 198 9 New York City Democratic mayoral primary race. The data indicate that con tributors are motivated to support candidates financially by the changing s tatus of a candidate's electoral prospects throughout the campaign.