Trends in cigarette smoking in fourth-form students in New Zealand, 1992-1997

Aims. To determine trends in the cigarette smoking behaviour of 14- and 15- year-old students in New Zealand. Methods. Nationwide cross-sectional surveys of fourth-form students in New Zealand in 85 schools by anonymous self-administered questionnaire in 1992 and 1997. In 1992, 79% of schools and 70% of students responded; in 1997, 8 8% and 72%, respectively. Results. Responses were analysed from 11 824 14- and 15 year-old fourth for mers in 1992 and from 11 350 in 1997. Daily, weekly or monthly combined smo king prevalence increased by 27% (95% confidence interval (CI) 21-32), adju sting for age, sex and ethnicity, from 23.4% in 1992 to 28.5% in 1997. Dail y smoking increased from 11.6% in 1992 to 15.5% in 1997 an adjusted 37% (95 % CI = 24-47) increase. The increase in daily smoking was: greater in girls (44%, 95% CI = 33-57) than boys (28%, 95% CI = 16-42), adjusting for age a nd ethnicity; unrelated to the socioeconomic decile of schools; and greates t in Auckland and Northland. Conclusion. This increase in smoking is large, 27-37% over five years, of u ncertain cause, affects both sexes, all regions, ethnic and socio-economic groups, and certain cigarette brands. Regular school smoking surveys and mo re smokefree youth venues are recommended. Addiction and nicotine absorptio n merit monitoring. Legislation can require disclosure of manufacturing rec ipes used for youth-popular cigarette brands. On 1960-97 trends it would ta ke 100 years to reduce fourth-form smoking to 5% prevalence. The proposed g radual denicotinisation of all cigarettes would allow smoking but prevent a ddiction, within ten years.