Selecting a portfolio of technologies: An application of decision analysis

The Department of Energy is faced with the critical and complex decision of selecting technologies for waste site remediation. This research focuses o n developing a decision support tool which assists the decision maker to fi nd an optimal portfolio. A portfolio consists of selecting the appropriate processes for a remediation site and, subsequently, selecting a technology for each process so that the decision maker's objectives are achieved. The measures supporting the objectives are risk, life-cycle cost, and time requ ired for remediation. The model uses exponential attribute utility function s with an additive objective function. The model provides the decision make r with estimates of the cost and time distributions, and their associated u tility. Cumulative frequency distributions illustrate the dominance of tech nology choices and the variance in the results. The model permits sensitivi ty analysis in the form of rainbow and tornado diagrams to display the effe cts of changes in the values of the input variables. Overall, the model pro vides a generic technology selection tool that can be used to make better i nformed decisions and may be easily manipulated to reflect changes in the r emediation process.