Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China's population policies

Under the current family planning policy in China, the criterion for evalua ting all parties involved in the birth planning system provides an incentiv e for everyone to see that the policy is met, either in reality through str ict enforcement of family planning regulations, or statistically through ma nipulation of statistical records. We investigate underreporting of births in four rural counties of northern China, using data from a 1992 sample sur vey featuring a reproductive history. To clarify the mechanisms of underrep orting, we focus on the ways in which reporting errors may affect the distr ibution of first births by time since marriage. The results of our investig ation suggest that in three of the four counties, first-birth intervals are lengthened by underreporting of girl babies and by replacing them with sec ond births reported as first births.