R. Wood et al., Risk factors for developing tuberculosis in HIV-1-infected adults from communities with a low or very high incidence of tuberculosis, J ACQ IMM D, 23(1), 2000, pp. 75-80
Objective: To estimate the incidence rate of tuberculosis in HIV-1-infected
adults resident in a region with a high tuberculosis prevalence and to ide
ntify clinical and laboratory parameters associated with increased risk of
developing tuberculosis.
Methods: Adult patients going to the University of Cape Town HIV clinics be
tween January 1986 and May 1996. The following variables were assessed for
the risk of developing tuberculosis: ethnicity, employment and education st
atus, World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stage, erythrocyte sedimenta
tion rate (ESR), CD4(+) count, and total lymphocyte count. Tuberculin skin
test data were not available.
Results: There were 198 prevalent and 144 incident cases of tuberculosis in
the cohort of 1206 patients. The incidence rate of tuberculosis risk was 1
0.4/100 person years. WHO clinical stages 3 and 4 (risk ratio [RR], 3.4; 95
% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-6.4), ESR >75 mm/hour (RR, 3.5; CI, 1.8-6.5
) and being a member of a high-prevalence tuberculosis community (RR, 2.5:
CI, 1.2-5.1) were independently associated with the risk of developing tube
rculosis.
Conclusions: HIV-infected adults in Cape Town are at high risk of developin
g tuberculosis irrespective of tuberculin skin testing. The risk increases
markedly with HIV disease progression. Patients at extremely high risk can
be identified on the basis of demographic and clinical features. Such indiv
iduals would be suitable for targeted tuberculosis prophylaxis.