The HIV prevalence, among patients either undergoing, or with the potential
to undergo, surgery were estimated using data from unlinked anonymous HIV
surveys of patients in Glasgow hospitals during 1992-1997 in order to quant
ify the risk of surgeons acquiring HIV occupationally in the era of postexp
osure prophylaxis (PEP) availability. A range of prevalence rates was appli
ed to data on other factors influencing risk; these comprized, i) the proba
bility of a percutaneous injury from a sharp instrument used on an HIV infe
cted patient resulting in HIV transmission, ii) the number of injuries sust
ained and iii) whether or not PEP was administered. On the basis of, for ex
ample, a surgeon sustaining three percutaneous injuries over 12 months and
not taking PEP after each, the annual risks ranged from 1 in 2 000 000 for
urological/renal surgeons to 1 in 200 000 for those performing general surg
ery/ENT/gynaecological procedures. The administration of PEP after each inj
ury would reduce these rates to 1 in 10 000 000 and 1 in 1 000 000 respecti
vely. The risk of surgeons acquiring HIV occupationally in a city which has
an HIV prevalence typical of most urban areas in the UK, is 'minimal' or '
negligible'. In the context of such low risk and our limited knowledge of t
he adverse effects of PEP, the risk assessment to decide whether or not to
give PEP should be well informed and consistent. Current guidelines to help
physicians and affected healthcare workers in their decision making need t
o be improved. (C) 2000 The Hospital Infection Society.