Global diffusion of technological innovations: A coupled-hazard approach

The authors propose a new methodology called the "coupled-hazard approach" to study the global diffusion of technological innovations. Beyond its abil ity to describe discontinuous diffusion patterns, the method explicitly rec ognizes the conceptual difference between the timing of a country's introdu ction of the new technology (the so-called implementation stage; Rogers 198 3) and the timing of the innovation's full adoption in the country (the con firmation stage). To illustrate the method, the authors apply it to the glo bal diffusion of digital telecommunications switches across more than 160 c ountries.