News coverage, economic cues, and the public's presidential preferences, 1984-1996

Much research demonstrates the importance of national, rather than personal , economic conditions on voting behavior, yet relatively unexplored is how citizens develop what scholars have called "rough evaluations" of the econo my. We argue that campaign news coverage about the nation's economic health provides cues to the public; in turn, these cues supply the criteria for s ociotropic voting, thereby shaping presidential preferences during the cour se of campaigns. Examining news stories in each of the past four presidenti al elections, we (1) categorize coverage as economic or noneconomic, (2) me asure its volume and valence, and (3) model candidate coverage against pres idential preference polls. Results suggest that economic candidate coverage , although accounting for only a fraction of content, strongly and consiste ntly predicts variation in presidential preference during all four election s, suggesting that voters gain sociotropic criteria for evaluating candidat es from news media coverage of campaigns.