Feed-borne transmission and case clustering of BSE

An unresolved issue in the epidemiology of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the UK is what precisely determines the degree to which cases of disease in cattle are clustered within herds throughout the course of the e pidemic. This paper presents an analysis of feed-borne transmission at the herd level and tests various models of case-clustering mechanisms, associat ed with heterogeneity in exposure to infectious feed, against observed epid emic pattern. We use an age-structured metapopulation framework in which th e recycling of animal tissue between herds via feed producers is explicitly described. We explore two alternative assumptions for the scaling with her d size of the within-herd risk of exposure of an animal to infectious mater ial. We find that whereas exposure heterogeneity caused by variation in fee d and offal processing methods and by variation in per-animal feed uptake c an explain the pattern of case clustering seen in the BSE epidemic, exposur e heterogeneity due to the aggregation of infectivity within feed cannot.