Identification of future earthquake sources in the Carpatho-Balkan orogenic belt using morphostructural criteria

The Carpatho-Balkan mountain belt, the most seismic zone of the Circum-Pann onian region. is studied with a goal to identify sites where shallow earthq uakes with MT 6.5 may occur. The study is based on the assumption that stro ng earthquakes associate with disjunctive nodes that are formed around the junctions of lineaments. In the study region, lineaments and disjunctive no des were defined by a morphostructural zonation method. The morphostructura l map compiled at the scale of 1:1,000,000 shows a hierarchical system of h omogeneous blocks, the network of morphostructural lineaments and the loci of disjunctive nodes. Shallow earthquakes with M-s greater than or equal to 5.0 recorded in the region were found to be nucleated at the mapped nodes. In the Carpatho-Balkan mountain belt, the nodes where earthquakes with M g reater than or equal to 6.5 may occur have been identified using morphostru ctural criteria of high seismicity, previously derived from pattern-recogni tion of potential seismic nodes in the Pamirs-Tien Shan region. In total, 6 4 of the 165 nodes mapped in the studied region have been defined to be pro ne to earthquakes of Mt 6.5. These 64 nodes include the seven where earthqu akes of M-s greater than or equal to 6.0 already took place.