Theory-based prediction of early reading

This article presents a theory of the cognitive processes involved in learn ing to vend and examines the degree to which measures derived from this the ory are able to predict success in reading. Measures were selected to addre ss five phonological processing constructs (naming speed, memory, rhyming, phonological synthesis, and phonological analysis), letter knowledge,, and the ability to pronounce words by analyzing them into smaller parts (decodi ng). Measures of these constructs and several measures of reading achieveme nt were administered to an initial sample of 161 kindergarten children and then readministered to as many of the same children as possible in grades 1 and 2; in grade 3 the reading achievement tests were administered. Princip al components analyses were used to derive factor scores for the phonologic al constructs in kindergarten and grades I and 2. In grade 2 five factors w ere found, but in kindergarten and grade 1 the phonological synthesis and a nalysis measures formed one phonological awareness factor, The factor score s, letter knowledge, decoding, and the reading achievement scores for each grade were used as predictors of reading achievement in subsequent grades i n a series of hierarchical regression analyses. Results supported the propo sed theory, with phonological awareness (or analysis), naming speed, and le tter recognition being the most frequent significant predictors and R(2)s r anging from .69 to .89. The constructs identified in the theory are argued to be important targets for both assessment and instruction. The value of t heoretical models of achievement is discussed.