Oceanic control of decadal North Atlantic sea level pressure variability in winter

The predictability of winter-time North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) v ariability has been investigated by means of an ensemble of integrations wi th an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed sea s urface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1951-1994. The results imply that the SLP variations on timescales of several years to decades may be predic table, provided the SST anomalies themselves used to drive the AGCM can be predicted. The model, however, suffers from systematic errors, and the simu lated centers of action are shifted relative to those observed.