The structural shape of force: Interstate intervention in the zones of peace and turmoil, 1946-1996

Two structural models are analyzed using data on foreign military intervent ions over the past half-century. A vertical model posits constancy in cente r-periphery ties, while a horizontal model suggests that the center and the periphery will gradually decouple when it comes to the use of force. The l atter, horizontal, view is more commonly accepted. Because of dwindling int erest in the periphery with the end of the Cold War and the increased milit arization of that part of the world, it is assumed that developed states wi ll become more reluctant to use military force in the hinterlands. Hence, t he use of force should primarily consist of horizontal interaction within t he periphery rather than vertical interaction between the center and the pe riphery. Despite such conventional wisdom, the data on interstate military intervention provides considerable support for the vertical model over the past fifty years. My findings also challenge common assumptions about the w orld dividing into a "zone of peace" among developed states and a "zone of turmoil" encompassing all other actors in the post-Cold War era.