THE SWEETENER MARKET IN THE EUROPEAN-UNIO N - ANALYSIS AND FORECAST TO 2005 06/

The structure of the sweetener market in the European Union has change d considerably in the last ten years. Overall, sugar sales have increa sed slightly, owing to greater use in the food industry. Household con sumption, on the other hand, has clearly declined. Besides isoglucose, inulin syrup, another sweetener that can replace sugar in some applic ations, has been included since 1994 in the sugar market regime. Per c apita sweetener consumption is currently growing at a rate of 4% per y ear. Two scenarios with different growth rates are projected up to the year 2000/01 for the development of the individual components of the sweetener market and the consequences for sugar sales are presented. S everal institutions have in recent years demanded the abolition of pro duction quotas in the sugar market. Another part of this paper examine s the consequences this could have for sugar sales and gives a market forecast to the year 2005/06, again applying different growth rates fo r household and food industry sales. Depending on the weight of the fo od industry and therewith on the possibilities of replacing sugar by i soglucose and inulin syrup, there are differences in the impact on sug ar sales in the various EU member countries. For the European Union as a whole, the abolition of production quotas would be likely to produc e in 2005/06 a decline in sugar sales by about 35%.