Why analyst overconfidence about the functional form of demand models can lead to overpricing

Generally, profit predictions are made conditional upon a particular functi onal form. The typical caveat offered is that this is not the "true" demand model, but is instead some reasonable approximation. We show how the notio n of an approximation can be explicitly represented using a random coeffici ent model. Our model nests the usual situation of complete model certainty as a special case. We go on to show how ignoring the uncertainty in functio nal form induced by approximation will lead to erroneous pricing decisions that may frequently lead to overpricing. For example, an inelastic, double-log demand model implies infinite optimal prices. This is clearly a nonsensical, analyst recommendation. We propose a more general form of the double-log model that allows for high confidence in the observed price range, but incorporates increased uncertainty about the adequacy of the double-log approximation as prices move beyond the obse rved range. The optimal pricing solutions for this new model are lower than those for the usual case with complete certainty. In fact, we find well-de fined optimal pricing solutions even for inelastic double-log demand models . This is a finding of great practical importance, given that aggregate dem and models tend to be inelastic for grocery categories, and that log demand models are frequently used (Hoch et al. 1995). We argue that the lack of r ecognizing uncertainty in the modeling process may partially account for wh y there is a seeming disparity between observed retail prices and the optim al prices implied by maximizing total category profits using estimated dema nd models (Little and Shapiro 1980). The problems of making optimal pricing decisions using double-log demand mo dels calibrated with store-level scanner data have been recognized. Previou s solutions are to constrain the results to achieve reasonable solutions (R eibstein and Gatignon 1984, Montgomery 1997) or to avoid these models altog ether in favor of household choice models aggregated to the store-level (Vi lcassim and Chintagunta 1995). Our assessment of the problem is that it is not necessarily an issue of model specification, but one of inference. In o ther words, double-log models fit well, but optimization leads to out-of-ra nge predictions. Our suggestion is that inferences from an estimated demand model need to be approached with some caution. Specifically, uncertainty a bout predictions will always exist. If this uncertainty is incorporated int o models such as the double-log form, then much better inferences can be ma de. It is our hope that this research will encourage others to think not on ly about model specification and estimation, but also inference.