Surface and upper air synoptic features prevailing at the time of onset of
southwest monsoon over Mumbai have been examined for a period of 50 years f
rom 1947 to 1996. These synoptic situations have been found to fall under t
hree broad categories. The study shows that on about 66% of the occasions,
the onset of monsoon over Mumbai is caused by low pressure area farming ove
r southeast and east central Arabian Sea as they move northwards, while on
28% of the occasions, the onset is due to the low pressure systems forming
over northwest/head Bay of Bengal and their movement towards northwest/west
northwest. Based on the findings of the study and the climatological aspec
ts, a criterion for declaring onset over Mumbai has been suggested.