An Alpine rainstorm: Sensitivity to the mesoscale upper-level structure

Rainstorms that occur on the south side of the European Alps during spring and fall are usually accompanied at the tropopause level by a single elonga ted filament of intruded stratospheric air. This study examines the depende ncy of one such storm (the Piedmont event of 5-6 November 1993) upon the fi lament's structure. The focus is on quantitative precipitation forecasting and particular attention is given to the timing, distribution, and amplitud e of the storm's rainfall. In a first step the storm's synoptic evolution a nd the upper-level filament's mesoscale structure are examined cursorily us ing data from a range of sources (ECMWF operational fields, radar estimate of accumulated precipitation, Meteosat water vapor imagery, and two limited -area pseudoforecasts of different duration to 0600 UTC 6 November). This e xamination helps identify distinct elements of the filament's potential vor ticity (PV) distribution. In the second step a set of atmospheric states are generated for 1800 UTC 4 November that differ only in their representation of the aforementioned PV elements, and this set forms the initial state for a series of 30-h simula tions to 0600 UTC 6 November. The simulated developments exhibit the same g eneral synoptic-behavior, but there are marked differences in the precipita tion fields. Diagnostic analysis links the discrepancies to a chain of infl uences involving a different evolution of the filament aloft that impacts u pon the underlying prefrontal low-level jet and, thereby, upon the strength and location of the storm's rainfall. This single case study serves to demonstrate that the simulated rainfall of the event is sensitive to the finescale features of the tropopause-level h ow. One inference is that an adequate initial specification of these featur es might be a necessary prerequisite for accurate QPF of Alpine rainstorms.