Predicting supercell motion using a new hodograph technique

A physically based, shear-relative, and Galilean invariant method for predi cting supercell motion using a hodograph is presented. It is founded on num erous observational and modeling studies since the 1940s, which suggest a c onsistent pattern to supercell motion exists. Two components are assumed to be largely responsible for supercell motion: (i) advection of the storm by a representative mean wind, and (ii) propagation away from the mean wind e ither toward the right or toward the left of the vertical wind shear-due to internal supercell dynamics,Using 290 supercell hodographs, this new metho d is shown to be statistically superior to existing methods in predicting s upercell motion for both right- and left-moving storms. Other external fact ors such as interaction with atmospheric boundaries and orography can have a pronounced effect on supercell motion, but these are difficult to quantif y prior to storm development using only a hodograph.