Precipitation in the northern alpine region: Case-study-type validation ofan operational forecast model

Quality and limitations of current quantitative precipitation simulations a re determined using the Deutschland-Modell of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The model independent validation data comprise the regular rain-gauge netw ork of DWD, taylored composites of an international radar network, Doppler winds from the DLR research radar, and meteorological timeseries at a groun d station. Area skill scores are compared for convectively dominated as wel l as more synoptically forced situations in the northern Alpine region. Ins pection of the temporal evolution of the components comprising the atmosphe ric water budget and of the precipitation partition gives insight in the di fferent nature of excitation mechanisms of heavy precipitation. The simulat ions are found to exhibit growing potential for follow-on hydrological appl ications, while a real breakthrough appears to necessitate the coming gener ation of non-hydrostatic operational forecast models with increased spatial resolution.