Studies on the probabilities and likely impacts of chains of accident (domino effect) in a fertilizer industry

Fertilizer industries are among the chemical process industries where hazar dous chemicals are handled and accidents involving heat/mass/momentum trans fer can result in explosions, fires, and toxic releases. Based on experienc e gained from past incidents in the fertilizer industries risk assessment t ools and techniques are often employed in order to identify hazards and to forecast potential disasters. These efforts have almost always focused on s ingle events or "stand alone" accidents. The interaction of an accident with other hazardous units with the potentia l to cause secondary, tertiary, or higher order accidents is seldom studied . Yet, chain of accidents have been occurring in the past and the probabili ty of a repetition in the future constantly increases because of the proxim ity of industrial plants and the increasing population pressure in most cou ntries. Consequently we have developed models and computer-automated tools to study chain of accidents or "domino effects." In this paper we discuss t he concept of domino effect in the context of our methodologies, and presen t an illustrative case study of a major fertilizer industry situated near t he city of Chennai(Madras, India).