Estimating the population impact of an intervention: a decision-analytic approach

The aim of this paper is to highlight the role for decision analysis in ass essing outcomes of medical interventions at a population level. The basic s teps of decision analysis are introduced and an illustrative hypothetical p reventive intervention is examined. Specific modelling challenges that aris e when estimating the population impact of an intervention are described an d each is accompanied by an example. Decision analysis can provide useful i nformation for health policy decision makers by identifying the interventio n(s) with the largest beneficial impact on health over a wide range of assu mptions. In addition, by focusing attention on the parameters with the grea test influence on projected outcomes, decision analysis can aid in identify ing critical areas for future research.