The fitness effects due to initial flowering dare in Phlox drummondii were
determined for three populations in central Texas (USA) over 3 yr (1990-199
2). Mean fitness (seed set) always decreased with the later initiation of f
lowering. The Likelihood of a plant fruiting differed with flowering date i
n five of the six instances (population by year combinations). Though plant
s that initiated flowering later tended to have spent more time in the vege
tative stage and tended to die later in the year than did earlier flowering
plants, this was not sufficient to overcome the reproductive penalties of
flowering late. Plants that initiated flowering later in the season spent l
ess time in the adult phase and were smaller. The mean number of flowers, f
ruits, and seeds per flowering plant always decreased with later flowering.
Fruit set was negatively correlated with flowering date in four of the six
population by year combinations. Nonparametric fitness functions were used
to summarize predicted fitness among different initial flowering dates for
each population on a yearly basis. Predicted mean fitness always declined
nonlinearly with Later flowering: the earliest flowering plants always had
the highest predicted fitness. These fitness functions describe directional
selection for the early initiation of flowering.