Objective To assess the extent to which the increasing incidence of prostat
e cancer in Scotland can be explained by increased detection, particularly
through transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) and use of the prost
ate-specific antigen (PSA) test.
Subjects and methods This population-based study was confined to men reside
nt in Scotland and aged greater than or equal to 50 years. Temporal trends
were examined in age-specific and age-standardized incidence, mortality and
TURF rates, and PSA testing rates during 1981-1996. Also analysed were the
geographical variations in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates
during two distinct periods, 1984-1986 (before PSA testing) and 1994-1996 (
after PSA testing). Finally, incidence rates and relative survival at 5 yea
rs were calculated by age group and 5-year periods of diagnosis during 1968
-1992.
Results The incidence of prostate cancer in men aged greater than or equal
to 50 years increased from an age-standardized rate of 142.0 per 100 000 in
1981 to 240.9 in 1996, with the steepest increase occurring between 1992 a
nd 1993. The mortality rate increased similarly until 1993, but was relativ
ely stable thereafter, falling slightly in 1996. In 1981-1988, incidence ra
tes were closely correlated with TURF rates (r=0.98, P<0.001). In 1989-1996
, incidence was closely correlated with PSA testing rates (r=0.98 P<0.001).
By 1994-1996, incidence rates varied substantially between Scottish mainla
nd health boards (range 167.7-303.0 per 100 000), with much less variation
in mortality rates (90.7-110.0). Relative survival has increased recently i
n all age groups although, in the era before PSA testing, survival was reas
onably stable despite increasing incidence.
Conclusion Although there may have been a true increase in risk, much of th
e observed increase in the incidence of prostate cancer in Scotland between
1981 and 1996 has been caused by increased detection, leading recently to
considerable variation among different areas of the country, The extent to
which this represents the early diagnosis of tumours which would eventually
cause symptoms or be life-threatening, or detection of latent disease whic
h would never have become symptomatic, is not clear. There is no evidence s
o far that the increased incidence is associated with any substantial reduc
tion in mortality.