Informal surveillance and street crime: A complex relationship

The systemic crime model predicts that informal surveillance of space reduc es street crime. Conversely, community decline theory posits that street cr ime reduces informal surveillance by increasing residents' perception of ri sk and fear. Moreover, functions of crime theory suggests that some types o f crime may increase surveillance. Using data for 100 urban neighborhoods, the analysis examines these predictions and disentangles reciprocal effects . Baseline recursive equations indicate that informal surveillance is inver sely associated with robbery/stranger assault, and that robbery/stranger as sault is inversely associated with informal surveillance. In contrast, burg lary rates are not affected by informal surveillance, but burglary has a po sitive effect on surveillance when robbery/stranger assault is controlled. Simultaneous equations indicate that robbery/stranger assault has a moderat ely strong inverse effect on informal surveillance, and that it is mediated by residents' perceptions of risk. When risk perception is controlled, inf ormal surveillance has an inverse effect on robbery/stranger assault. The l atter analysis also indicates that burglary increases surveillance suggesti ng that some types of crime serve positive functions. The results, therefor e, lend support to systemic, community decline, and functions of crime theo ry, and they suggest that the relationship between informal surveillance an d crime is complex. Implications for community crime research are discussed .