Issues, economics, and the dynamics of multiparty elections: The British 1987 general election

We offer a model of multiparty elections that combines voters' retrospectiv e economic evaluations with consideration of parties' issue positions and t he issue preferences of voters. We show that both policy issues and the sta te of the economy matter in British elections. In 1987 voters made a largel y retrospective evaluation of the Conservatives based on economic performan ce; those who rejected the Conservative Party chose between Labour and Alli ance based on issue positions. Through simulations we move the parties in t he issue space and reestimate vote shares as well as hypothesize an alterna tive distribution of views on the economy and we show that Labour had virtu ally no chance to win with a centrist party, as a viable alternative. The p redictions from our 1987 simulations are supported in an analysis of the 19 92 British election. We argue for multinomial probit in studying three-part y elections because it allows for a richer formulation of politics than do competing methods.