Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century

Glaciers in China can be categorized into 3 types, i.e. the maritime (tempe rate) type, sub-continental (sub-polar) type and extreme continental (polar ) type, which take 22%, 46% and 32% of the total existing glacier area (59 406 km(2)) respectively, Researches indicate that glaciers of the three typ es show different response patterns to the global warming. Since the Max;im a of the Little Ice Age (the 17th century), air temperature has risen at a magnitude of 1.3 degrees C on average and the glacier area decreased corres ponds to 20% of the present: total glacier area in western China. II: is es timated that air temperature rise in the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s will be of the order of 0.41.2, 1.2-2.7 and 2.1-4.0 K in western China. With these sce narios, glaciers in China will suffer from further shrinkage by 12%, 28% an d 45% by the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s. The uncertainties may account for 30%- 67% in 2100 in China.