Economics and elections in Western Europe: 1960-1997

This paper analyzes macroeconomic conditions and parliamentary election out comes in 13 European countries over the 1960-1997 period. The analysis focu ses on two themes. The first is that different macroeconomic theories imply that different economic indicators should be important for voters. The sec ond is that political responsibility should condition voters' responses to economic performance. We estimate a model in which indicators of economic p erformance and political responsibility interactively determine election ou tcomes. Performance measures suggested by alternative theories are included in empirical specifications. Results suggest that changes in inflation, es pecially when measured relative to the European average, have an impact on incumbents' vote shares. The analysis fails to isolate political responsibi lity variables that condition the impact of economic performance on the vot e, however. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.