The 1998 French regional elections: why so much political instability?

In France, the Regional vote incontestably obeys national politico-economic determinants. It serves as a simple barometer for the central government. Our model, forecasting 17 regional presidencies out of 22, indicated very e arly (2 months before the election) that in several regions no obvious majo rity would emerge and that, despite the Right having a narrow majority, it would be weakened facing the Left and the National Front. Since 1986, the r egional vote is supposed to provide a political legitimacy to the managers in charge of the regions; however, the voters do not act in accordance with local economic criteria. One deduces that, in reality France has not gone far with governmental decentralization, at least in comparison with its Ger man or Spanish neighbors. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserve d.