Major's lesser (not minor) effects: prime ministerial approval and governing party support in Britain since 1979

Recent studies have challenged a long-standing conventional wisdom that Bri tish prime ministers have little or no influence on party support. This res earch is based largely on data gathered during Margaret Thatcher's lengthy term in office. Given her enormous salience and the powerful emotions that her policies and personality evoked, the conclusion that voters' evaluation s of prime ministerial performance typically are very influential may be un warranted. This paper addresses the possibility by comparing the impact of prime ministerial approval on governing party vote intentions during the Th atcher and Major eras. Time series analyses of error correction models of C onservative Party support for the 1979-1996 period reveal that prime minist erial approval had stronger short- and long-run effects on vote intentions during the Thatcher years. However, both kinds of effects remained statisti cally significant and substantively important when Major was prime minister . (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.