Development of an ozone forecasting model for non-attainment areas in the state of Ohio

Ground level ozone is responsible for the formation of smog, and for a vari ety of adverse effects on both human and plant life. High concentrations of ground level ozone occur during the summer months. This paper describes th e development of a model to forecast the maximum daily concentration of ozo ne as a function of the maximum surface temperature, for ozone non-attainme nt regions in Ohio. The model was developed by statistical analysis of exis ting data. Site-specific models were developed initially. The verification and evaluation of the performance criteria of the model at each site were e xplored by comparing the model with an independent dataset collected from t hat site. A generalized statewide model was developed from the site-specifi c models. The performance criteria of this model were verified and evaluate d by employing the same independent datasets employed for the site-specific models. An exceedence model to predict the occurrence of ozone exceedences over 100 ppb has also been presented.