Probabilistic monitoring of project performance using SS-curves

The purpose of this study was to develop a new concept of project control. This new concept uses stochastic S-curves (SS-Curves) as an alternative to using the deterministic S-curve technique commonly employed in professional practice. SS-curves are developed by determining the activity level variab ility in cost and duration. Simulation is the recommended approach for obta ining SS-curves, similar to the way chat stochastic schedules are currently developed. SS-curves provide probability distributions for expected, cost and duration for a given percentage of work completed. Monitoring project p erformance is performed by comparing the most: likely budget and duration v alues, obtained from respective probability distributions For actual progre ss, with the project's actual data and cumulative cost. By using this metho d, an evaluation of actual project performance can be developed that approp riately considers the natural variability of construction costs and duratio n, rather than utilizing only one possible deterministic outcome. Given the probabilistic characteristics of SS-curves, additional benefits are presen ted that enable a more comprehensive project control methodology.